Here are the top 4 stocks we are watching for swing trades going into the week of 2/26/2024:
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This weeks names: $BA, $HSY, $PLD, $IWM
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$BA. Boeing Company
Analysis (2/26/2024):
A few things I like about $BA here. $198.32 was the recent low and as you can imagine, a LOT of people likely had their stops placed there. Price wicked below that level on the daily and ended up closing with a small spread and high volume. This was likely a stop hunt and capitulation of early longs. I love how price is increasing and spreads are decreasing as the falling wedge is getting tighter on the daily. Notice the last three days spreads have consistently been decreasing, yet volume is increasing? These are VPA anomalies. On the 4HR, notice how volume continually was decreasing as price was falling, then the 4HR closed on massive buying volume and a hammer candle to close right back in the falling wedge. $203.50 is a huge level here. I am looking for a pop above the level and a retest for a long entry.
2. $PLD. Prologis, Inc.
Original Analysis (2/5/2024):
Long. Stop loss: daily close below $126.53. Profit target #1: $146.81. Profit target #2: $157.28. Reasoning: Clear S/R flip of the ~$125 level here. Price failed to have a weekly close above the zone from Mar 23′ – Sep 23′. Price finally broke above the zone at the end of 23′. When looking at breakouts, I HAVE to see high volume breaking through the zone. Otherwise, a low volume break is always a good bet for a failed break. $PLD had massive volume pushing price past the zone it had failed for nearly half a year. Now price is back to the level. As with other trades, I need to see a confirmation of the resistance turned support. What makes it a 10/10 S/R flip is when the volume supporting the flip is increased compared to the pullback to the level. Here we see exactly that. The volume sequence was massive volume break of resistance, low volume pullback, high volume lower wick holding support on earnings, and now a high volume buying green candle. Market structure wise, price is still bearish on the weekly. Price needs to take out the recent lower low to confirm bullish structure, which I believe is likely based off the daily bullish structure. Also liking how price is bouncing off the volume profile of both the daily and weekly charts. Risking $3 of underlying for potential $11-$21 reward.
Updated Analysis (2/12/2024):
Awesome week for $PLD. Last week my stop was a daily close below $126.53. On Monday, price wicked through my stop but did not close below the level. The weekly needed to close above $130.60 to form a bullish structure, which it did. New stop is $129.09 which is the recent higher low. However, I would not like to see price close below $130.50 (area of previous resistance that price has now broken). The ideal long entry here would be $130.50.
Updated Analysis (2/19/2024):
Very interesting week. Stop coming into this week was a daily close below $129.09. The current stop is a daily close below the recent higher low at $130.50. The weekly is showing a long lower wick on increased volume. CPI dump on Tuesday was bought up on very high volume. Price has now compressed for 9 weeks now! I am looking for price expansion heading into next week. I am positioned for May here, and I am really liking the weekly look.
Updated Analysis (2/26/2024):
Stop is still a close below $130.50. I thought last week would be the beginning of the breakout here. But the rest of the real estate sector and $PLD wasn’t ready. I reduced some risk Friday by closing some small profits, but I am happy to welcome a short-term drop in price. $130.50 is the big level here. Large accumulation on both the daily and weekly VP. Up until the close on Friday, $PLD looked to be forming an ascending triangle and setting up for the breakout. Price broke above the triangle, double topped, and quickly looked like a failed breakout rising wedge. This is a FANTASTIC example of a fake breakout on the hourly. Nevertheless, I am looking for price to fall to demand around $130.50 and form bullish structure on the 4HR and 1HR to re-add risk on $PLD.
3. $IWM, Russell 2000
Original Analysis: (2/12/2024):
Long. Stop loss: $193.25. Proit target: $220. Weekly looks awesome here. I loved $IWM a few weeks ago, but structure was yet to put in a higher low confirming bullish structure. We saw price fill the gap and it looks like price is ready to test $220. Bullish market structure on the weekly now as price created a higher low. Volume profile showing a large volume gap in the $200-$220 zone. Stop is a close below the recent higher low at $193.25. Ideal long entry would be a retest of $199.50 if price breaks it on Monday. Otherwise, any entry between $193.25-$199.50 would be great imo.
Updated Analysis (2/19/2024):
Stop is moving from $193.25 to $194.61. I love how the weekly is looking here, high volume buying, and finding support off of the volume profile node. Looks primed for a move to $220’s. If we see $198-$199.50 again, I will likely be adding to my position. The zone I am looking to add is in the 3rd picture.
Updated Analysis (2/26/2024):
Stop is moving from $194.61 to $197.54. On the weekly, price held the 9 EMA and once again bounced off the VP volume node. On the daily, market structure is bullish and sitting right in between supply and demand. $200-$201 is still acting as supply on the hourly. I would look for a break of that supply zone and retest for a new long entry, with a stop right below the zone. If we are lucky enough, price could double bottom on the daily around $196-$197 which would also be a fantastic entry. $203.58 is the big last resistance on both the daily and weekly, a close above and I think $IWM finally makes its trip to $220’s.
4. $HSY, The Hershey Company
Here is the full breakdown and what I am watching for this week, and where new longs can get in. Let’s start with the weekly here. Price is bouncing off of the VP POC and has created a higher low (bullish market structure). There is a sizeable gap to the upside if the weekly can close above $195. On the daily, price has been consolidating between $190-$195. Daily market structure is bullish as we have a double bottom off of the daily VP POC and recently a new higher low. The volume on the daily candle that wicked below demand is encouraging for longs. On the hourly, I am looking for a break and retest of the $195 level. Ideally, I would want the daily to fully close above the level. If and when price then comes back to the level, I would enter long off of an hourly confirmation of buying (note: I would also want the hourly structure to be bullish, price can close higher showing support, but could just as easily fall back down or through if the bears are still in control). Current stop loss is a daily close below $192.49. Targeting a short term move to $207-$208 after we get a break of $195. But I could certainly see a bullish price action cycle to the low $220’s.